UK

UK NIESR GDP Estimate

UK NIESR GDP Estimate (Jan) M/M 0.0% Previous -0.3%

07/02/13 @ 15:05 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

Mixed UK fortunes

In the relatively constrained world of end-of-year FX markets, sterling received a modest lift from the latest labour market data. Whereas the Fed has made improved labour market conditions an explicit part of its policy goal and the focus of its statement, the UK has, on one level, less to worry about. The peak-to-trough fall in employment was 2.7% in the UK vs. a 6.2% decline in the US (on establishment survey measure).
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12/12/2012 @ 11:05 GMT

Suffering sterling

Data/Event Risks • GBP: The chancellor delivers his autumn statement, which used to be rather bland affairs, but are now like mini-budgets, which creates greater risks for FX volatility, depending whether going to be tough (weaker currency), or easy (stronger currency). • EUR: Modest interest with the final services PMI data early on, with Span selling bonds today.
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05/12/2012 @ 07:28 GMT

GBP Retail Sales

GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.8% Vs -0.1% exp. GBPUSD falls to 1.5830

15/11/12 @ 09:42 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

Pound pounded

It was a very interesting press conference from the Bank of England. Once again, the inflation profile is higher and it suspects that growth may well be weaker in the current quarter. Furthermore, on a technical point, the Bank has been clearer on the impact of the transfer of coupon payments from the Bank to the Treasury, which is about GBP 37bln over the next year. The Bank says that this is equivalent to QE of the same amount. The cynical are pushing the governor, suggesting that the Bank is losing some of its independence because of this.
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14/11/2012 @ 12:08 GMT

GBP inflation report

BOE sees inflation slowing to 2% over the forcasted period as crisis impact is bigger than expected. GBPUSD drops to 1.5879.

14/11/12 @ 10:51 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

More difficult times for sterling

The latest UK data (retail sales for September) join a recent run of releases that have reflected a better picture of the UK economy and offered support to sterling. Indeed, looking at the Citibank economic surprise index (rises if data is above expectations and vice versa), there is a much stronger correlation of late between better economic data and a stronger pound. In other words, it seems that the fundamentals are mattering more
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18/10/2012 @ 10:20 GMT

The good and bad of UK labour data

The latest UK labour market data shows the household employment measure rising above the peak seen in 2008. In contrast, a similar measure in the US shows that employment remains some 4% below the 2008 peak. This is one reason why the US central bank has explicitly linked the latest round of quantitative easing to a substantial improvement in the labour market.
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17/10/2012 @ 11:33 GMT

The sterling fight-back?

In the latest IMF forecasts for the global economy, the biggest cut in growth expectations for the developed markets was reserved for the UK, with its forecast of the economy for this year cut by 0.6%. Even taking into account emerging markets, it was only India and Brazil that saw bigger downgrades for the current year.
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09/10/2012 @ 10:24 GMT

The rough ride ahead

Since EUR/USD’s 1.3172 peak at the beginning of last week, the pair has fallen in six of the past eight sessions and the single currency has proved to be the weakest of the major currencies vs. the dollar so far this week. There are a number of factors behind this move, and one of them relates to the perception surrounding Spain and the way ahead. The glow from the ECB announcements earlier this month has waned, replaced by a vacuum in which Spain has to ask formally for assistance before the ECB can come and do “whatever it takes”.
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27/09/2012 @ 07:04 GMT

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