JPY

Go Aussie

Data/Event Risks USD: There will be some focus on the minutes to the last FOMC meeting held 19-20 March for clues of future policy direction, but dollar impact should be limited. EUR: No major data releases, just production data both in Italy and Portugal. The focus continues to be the impact from the weaker yen, with the single currency proving to be one of the main beneficiaries.
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10/04/2013 @ 07:00 GMT

EURJPY on fire

Data/Event Risks GBP: Industrial production data is expected to show a modest rebound (0.4% MoM) from the sharp 1.2% decline seen in the January data. Market keenly focused on whether GDP expanded in the first quarter after Q4 decline (-0.3%). Sterling would find comfort in stronger than expected release. USD: Low risks from the data side today with just Wholesale Inventories, which is not a market-mover for the dollar.
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09/04/2013 @ 07:08 GMT

Trading payrolls

Data/Event Risks USD: The market looks for a 190k rise in non-farm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.7%. Expect the dollar to strengthen on a firmer than expected number (see below for more), with the euro looking the more vulnerable in this scenario.
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05/04/2013 @ 07:25 GMT

Delivering in Japan

There’s no doubting that the Bank of Japan delivered over and above what was expected. But the two questions to explore are will the policy announcements be enough to deliver 2% inflation on their imposed 2 year horizon and what will be the impact on the currency?

04/04/13 @ 10:18 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

Above and beyond in Japan

Data/Event Risks EUR: The ECB meeting today is not expected to yield any changes in policy, but once again it is the press conference which will catch the attention. EURUSD rallied nearly 1 big figure last month as the ECB President steered a steady path in his rhetoric, but this may not be the case this month, with the recent run of data for the Eurozone having been on the soft side and events in Cyprus having caused more uncertainty on the financial front.
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04/04/2013 @ 06:50 GMT

Waiting for Japan

Data/Event Risks USD: The ADP employment data is always seen as a strong indicator of the tone to the employment report at the end of the week, but relationship between the two has been weaker over the past year, so a strong ADP report does not necessarily mean a strong gain in employment when the official figures are released Friday. As such, if the ADP released is firmer than the 200k expectation, the dollar may be reluctant to rally significantly.
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03/04/2013 @ 06:56 GMT

Euro on the defensive

As volumes return to the FX markets, the euro is nudging lower during the early part of the European session, EURUSD down just below 1.2830. The final manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone was a touch firmer than the original release (from 46.6 to 46.8), but the difference was marginal. What we are seeing is some further slippage on EURJPY down though the 119.50 area in Asian trade, a move which has so far been sustained in the European session. There are central bank risks on both this week (Thursday), with a great amount of expectations on the new BoJ President Kuroda.
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02/04/2013 @ 08:48 GMT

Dollar disappointment

Data/Event Risks USD: Low risks from the data side, with just factory orders. That said, the market could well be more sensitive to weaker releases after yesterday’s disappointing ISM manufacturing data. EUR: The final PMI manufacturing data today will be of interest, especially in wake of US data yesterday. Eurozone unemployment data also released, but of secondary interest.
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02/04/2013 @ 06:51 GMT

Indigestion

Data/Event Risks USD: Durable goods data always a fairly volatile one so can knock the dollar if weaker, but generally the market has a strong ability to shake the data off. EUR: Focus on events in Cyprus and further details on the likely hit to larger depositers (over EUR 100K). The single currency is proving sensitive to longer-term considerations, as the reaction to comments from head of the Eurogroup Dijsselbloem showed yesterday.
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26/03/2013 @ 07:15 GMT

A deal is done

Data/Event Risks FX: Data and events for today are fairly thin, keeping volatility risks on the low side. The main focus for markets will be the implications of the deal put together overnight on Cyprus.
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25/03/2013 @ 07:55 GMT

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